Are Home Prices Still Going Up in the Twin Cities in 2026? Here’s What the Numbers Show

The honest answer first

Yes, home prices in the Twin Cities are still going up. Slowly.

Over the 12 months ending in September 2026, the Twin Cities median sales price was $395,000, up 1.3% from the year before, according to NorthstarMLS data. Inflation for the 12 months ending in August was 3.4%.

So prices are up on paper. After you account for the cost of everything else going up, they're roughly flat to slightly down this year.

I'd rather tell you that plainly than dress it up. If someone is telling you every home is a guaranteed money maker right now, ask them to show you the math. Then keep reading, because flat prices don't mean owning stopped making sense. They mean you need to understand why you're buying.

Prices don't move the same everywhere

The metro number is an average of very different markets. In August, the Minneapolis median rose 6.7% to $368,000 while St. Paul held flat at $315,000, per Minnesota Realtors. Same month, same metro, two different stories.

That's why I never price a home in Buffalo off a headline about the Twin Cities.

Wright County. Zillow's Home Value Index put the typical Wright County home at about $398,500 in June 2026, up roughly 1.5% over the year. Here's what the MLS shows town by town. These are median sales prices over the 12 months ending in September 2026, compared with the 12 months before. A rolling year smooths out the swings you get in smaller towns.

• Buffalo: $365,000, up 1.4%
• Delano: $435,000, down 2.9%
• St. Michael: $444,900, up 1.1%
• Rockford: $364,500, up 2.9%

Maple Grove and Hennepin County. Maple Grove is its own market, with different price points and different buyer competition. Over the same 12 months, the Maple Grove median was $430,000, up 0.9%.

Every one of these towns grew slower than inflation, and Delano went slightly backward. That's the same honest picture as the metro, just closer to home.

If you want the numbers for your specific street, that's a five-minute pull for me. Ask.

Appreciation is only one way a home builds wealth

Before real estate, I did fix-and-flip and rental investing. The deals that worked for me rarely worked because the market handed me a big gain. They worked because of the things I could control.

• Principal paydown. Every payment chips away at the loan. On a $400,000 loan at 7.28%, roughly $3,800 goes to principal in year one and about $22,000 over five years. That equity builds whether prices move or not.
• Improvements. A finished basement, a fixed drainage problem, an updated kitchen. These can create value the market won't give you on its own, if you choose the right projects.
• Rental income. If you own a duplex or rent out a room, that income keeps coming no matter what the comps did this quarter.

None of these show up in the median price headline. All of them show up in your net worth.

Compared to what?

When buyers tell me they'll wait and keep renting, I ask one thing. Compared to what?

Renting has real advantages. Flexibility is one. But renters get none of the appreciation and none of the principal paydown, and they don't control their next increase. Their landlord does.

Timing is the other piece. Mortgage rates have climbed this fall. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 6.95% in mid-September and 7.28% as of October 1. Nobody can tell you where rates go next. Anyone who says they can is guessing.

What you can control is whether the home and the payment make sense for your life today. If rates drop later, refinancing is an option worth talking through with a lender. If they don't, you still bought a home that works.

The question I ask every buyer

If this home's price never went up at all, would you still want to buy it?

If the answer is yes, because of the commute, the space your family needs, the yard, or the equity you'll build paying it down, the purchase stands on its own. Any appreciation is a bonus.

If the answer is no, I want you to find that out now. Not after closing.

I'm willing to talk a buyer out of the wrong house. Walking away from a home that doesn't fit costs you a few weekends. Buying it costs you years.

Buyers have room to negotiate this fall

This is the most balanced market I've worked in a while, and the numbers back that up. In the Twin Cities in August 2026, per Minnesota Realtors:

• Inventory rose 9.6% to 11,903 homes for sale
• Months of supply reached 3.0
• Homes averaged 41 days on market
• Sellers received 99.1% of list price on average, down slightly from a year ago

Statewide, Minnesota Realtors called it the most balanced August since 2017.

More balance means more room to ask. The inspection is usually where that shows up. I read inspection reports line by line with my buyers, and when the report shows real issues, we ask for something. Repairs, a credit, a price adjustment. Sellers in this market are more willing to listen than they were two years ago.

Three months of supply is still on the low side historically. Well-priced homes in good condition still sell. You have room to think, not unlimited time.

Down payment help isn't only for first-time buyers

One of the most common things I hear: "We wouldn't qualify for assistance." A lot of buyers never check.

Here's what's worth knowing:

• Programs exist for repeat buyers too. Minnesota Housing runs programs for both first-time and repeat buyers, with income and price limits.
• Location matters. Some grants and loans are tied to a specific county or city. A program available for a Maple Grove purchase in Hennepin County may not apply to a home in Wright County, and the reverse.
• Some programs can be combined. Depending on the rules, a buyer may be able to layer more than one source of help on a single purchase.
• Income limits are often based on more than you'd guess. Some count only the applicant's income, others the whole household. The details decide whether you qualify.

I'm not a lender, and program rules change often. What I do is make sure you ask the question early, before you rule yourself out. A local lender who works with these programs every week can tell you exactly what you qualify for.

Frequently asked questions

Are home prices still going up west of Minneapolis in 2026? Yes, slowly. The Twin Cities median sales price was $395,000 for the 12 months ending September 2026, up 1.3%, per NorthstarMLS data. In Wright County, Buffalo rose 1.4%, St. Michael 1.1% and Rockford 2.9%, while Delano dipped 2.9%. Maple Grove rose 0.9%.

Does real estate always beat inflation? No. Over long stretches, home values have often kept pace with inflation, but some years they trail it. In 2026, Twin Cities prices rose about 1.3% while inflation ran 3.4%. Principal paydown, improvements and rental income still build wealth in years like this.

What's the difference between nominal and real home appreciation? Nominal appreciation is the raw change in price. Real appreciation subtracts inflation. A home that gains 1.3% while inflation runs 3.4% is up on paper but has lost a little buying power.

Is fall 2026 a good time to buy in Wright County or Maple Grove? It depends on the home and your plans, not the calendar. Buyers have more inventory and more negotiating room than in recent years. If the home works for your life even with zero appreciation, the timing matters less.

Can repeat buyers get down payment assistance in Minnesota? Some programs serve repeat buyers, and some can be combined. Eligibility depends on income, price and location, so talk with a local lender before assuming you don't qualify.

Before you decide

Headlines tell you what the metro did. They don't tell you whether a specific home in Buffalo, Delano, St. Michael, Rockford or Maple Grove makes sense for you.

If you're weighing a move west of Minneapolis, start with my free guide, Where to Live West of Minneapolis Without Guessing. It walks through how these towns compare on commute, home prices and what you get for your money, so you can narrow your search before you spend a single weekend touring.

Want the numbers for a specific town or street? Send me a message and I'll pull them.